I’ve believed for a while now that Flash is coming to the iPhone, sooner or later – emphasis on sooner. Today’s announcement and beta release of Moviestar make me feel even more certain.
Here’s why I think Flash is coming to the iPhone:
Apple wants it. Steve Jobs has referred to the Internet experience with the iPhone as “The Real Internet”. For better or for worse, today that means Flash content. Until Flash is built-in to the iPhone, it only offers most of “The Real Internet”. If it’s not the same experience you can get with Firefox, IE, or Safari, it’s not “The Real Internet”. (Can you tell that I don’t love that phrase?) Jobs knows this. Flash on the iPhone = more iPhones sold.
Adobe wants it. Flash’s reach and market penetration are a bragging point, and a source of clout. They want people developing Flash sites and apps for the iPhone, so they can sell more copies of Flash and Flex Builder and so the patina of the iPhone rubs off on them. Everyone wants piece of the iPhone pie, and adobe isn’t immune.
Apple and Adobe are tight. Their goals are aligned, and they know how to work together.
Walt Mossberg says so.
At launch, the iPhone version of the Safari browser is missing some plug-ins needed for playing common types of Web videos. The most important of these is the plug-in for Adobe’s Flash technology. Apple says it plans to add that plug-in through an early software update, which I am guessing will occur within the next couple of months.
The technical hurdles are fixable. The primary hurdle is CPU usage, and along with it, battery life. This is fixable. H.264 encoding goes a long way toward fixing this, because the iPhone includes a hardward H.264 decoder. Hardware decoding is way more efficient than software decoding, and video is a large portion of usage of Flash in today’s web. MobileSafari’s JavaScript engine also demonstrates that some minor tweaks to a scripting engine can help prevent badly coded scripts from sucking precious watts. I wouldn’t be surprised if Adobe made similar modifications to Tamarin for the iPhone.
The Flash player dev team is on a roll. Version 9 is a huge success, and ActionScript 3 is a great language. They haven’t rested on their laurels either: since v9 was released for Mac and Windows, they’ve released a bevy of improvements, such as full screen support, today’s H.264 support, and support for other platforms, such as Linux and the Wii. Do you really think it’d be a big deal for them to dev a iPhone build with some CPU-saving customizations? I think not. The iPhone, after all, is essentially a Mac running customized versions of OS X and Aqua and some novel hardware. For an example of the competence of the team members, see Tinic Uro’s What just happened to video on the web? or Mike Melanson’s blog Penguin.SWF.
Apple’s Customers Want It. This is last because I think it’s actually the least important – for better or for worse, Apple doesn’t have a great track record of implementing features just because customers ask for them. Anyway, people who buy the iPhone so they can use “The Real Internet” are going to be annoyed when they find that some sites just don’t work, or work partially, or look different. (Regular, non-geek people, that is. Geeks already know Flash isn’t supported, so while they may be disgruntled, they aren’t surprised.)
If there are so many reasons why, you might be wondering: what’s taking so long? The basic answer: it’s important enough to both Apple and Adobe that they’re taking the time to do it right. While I’ve already explained why I think it’ll happen, and why the hurdles are jumpable, I’m not saying it’s easy. Apple in particular has a lot to lose. They need to tread lightly with iPhone stability and battery life. It’s a phone, not a computer, and people have very high expectations of stability and availability for a phone – far more than a computer. One risky software update, a couple of hundred phone crashes, and the media could jump on the issue in an iFeedingFrenzy. (Yes, I know the iPhone technically is a computer, I use it here as it’s used on the street, to mean a general-purpose system, which are historically not completely stable.)
So that’s my prediction. And who knows, after Flash, we might even see two-click application installation on the iPhone with AIR.
Rich Ziade Said:
I agree with just about everything you’re saying – but I think Adobe has larger ambitions. Specifically, I think they want Flash to be THE portable runtime to put everywhere – portable devices, set-top boxes, computers, etc.
I think Adobe is sitting on an absolutely massive opportunity to package and sell this platform to the mobile hardware players. And they may well have the OS to do it. Let them commoditize the hardware, we’ll bring a best-of-class OS to your device. Just give us the horsepower.
How that colors the relationship between Adobe & Apple is yet to be seen. For now, it may mean nothing, but if Adobe is serious, they will eventually turn competitive. I think its already headed that way. Think the bizarre friend & foe relationship that exists between Microsoft & Apple to this day.
BHI Pro careers Said:
Well, the iPhones on the succeeding years will be the most convenient thing to have.
the constant skeptic Said:
still not buying an iphone until next year when the next version comes up with a real editable file system and leopard
God of Biscuits Said:
I don’t want it on my iPhone because it’s a CPU hog and therefore a battery hog. There is no way to hardware-accelerate flash like there is for h.264.
Avi Flax Said:
@God of Biscuits: Hopefully there will be a “Disable Flash” setting in Safari preferences.
Chris Chung Said:
It seems to me that the lack of Flash is not exclusively because of Apple and Adobe. There is a third “A” corporation that may have many things to do with the iPhone. Most people who wants Flash on iPhone forgets that other large player that may has a huge roll or had much say in what can be available for the iPhone.
AT&T Wireless
It is just a guess, but AT&T may have had an agreement with Apple to not make Flash available either just temporarily or for good. Why? I think it is for bandwidth purposes. Things using Flash use LOTS of bandwidth. Games, objects, and most of all movies. That’s why they teamed up with Google/YouTube. Getting them to use Apple’s codec shrunk the files, making everyone happy, including AT&T.
I don’t see how Flash would not be available for iPhone, since other platforms using Safari have Flash capabilities. So I believe the lack of Flash is a strategic ploy by the 3rd company who’s name starts with an “A”. AT&T.
I think there will eventually be an update that will install Flash player for Safari, since their new iPod touch will have a browser too. If the their iPod does not have it either, there will be many unhappy customers. If it is intentionally being left out of the iPhone, let’s just hope the iPod Touch will have it and it could be somehow transfered on to the iPhone.
Avi Flax Said:
@Chris: Interesting, I didn’t think of that. Still, since the iPhone and iPod Touch (which are essentially the same platform where Safari is concerned) would be getting a custom build of the Flash Player, with optimizations to reduce CPU usage, that build could just as easy have optimizations designed to reduce bandwidth usage. For example, it might only allow video streaming using H.264.
But there’s another reason that AT&T might resist Flash coming to the iPhone: Skype and other VoIP services. Given that the iPhone plans include unlimited data but limited voice call minutes, they’d probably be concerned about the possibility of people using VoIP via Flash clients to bypass their minute usage. And I’m not sure if the Player could be customized to disallow that, without crippling the Player’s general functionality.
It’s an interesting situation, to be sure.
Chris Chung Said:
@Avi
True. I am not sure how they would allow streaming only with their H.264 format, yet it may be possible. Usually Flash is Flash, but who knows. It is Apple territory and they can define whatever they wish as long there is a buck to be made.
I don’t know too much about VoIP or if there are any work-arounds or exploits, but the idea to make a VoIP program may eliminate the need for use of Flash as long as all the data is routed correctly, the same way Safari does.
BTW: Nice page. Caught my eye on Google.
stop home foreclosure Said:
iphone has too many limitations for me. Name the inability to receive and send MMS messages. I’ll stick with the Blackberry until they upgrade the software.
movie spoilers Said:
Ok, but the new iphone has improved dramatically and lifted many of the prior’s limitations. Unfortunately the MMS feature needs some work, but that’s nothing Jobs cant take of with a simple d/l software upgrade.
online poker rooms Said:
Sorry the multi-touch, rich app iphone still outperforms any touch screen phone on the market. Winner=Apple